The research firm maintained its full-year earnings outlook with basic EPS estimated at 78.94 cents.
AIA Group Limited is expected to deliver significant long-term growth, as Jefferies maintained its full-year earnings forecast for 2026, though it adjusted its quarterly model to reflect an expected 3% contraction in Value of New Business (VONB) in the third quarter of 2026.
This slowdown is attributed to strong comparative performance from the same period in 2025. The research firm expects this contraction to be offset by stronger growth in the fourth quarter, where the prior-year comparison is lower.
Full-year basic earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 stand at 78.94 cents, comprising 41.21 cents in the first half and 37.74 cents in the second half.
Consensus figures compiled by Visible Alpha indicate EPS forecasts are 4% higher for 2026 and 3% higher for 2027 compared to previous estimates, whilst 2027 revenue expectations are 2% lower.
The positive forecast is largely driven by AIA Thailand, the group’s third-largest market. In the first half of 2026, Thailand generated 15% of the group’s VONB and 12% of its Embedded Value (EV).
Over 90% of sales in the country are protection or fee-based products. In fiscal year 2025, protection products generated 77% of the segment’s VONB, unit-linked plans accounted for 15%, and capital-intensive products comprised 8%.
AIA Thailand serves over 5 million customers, maintaining a median tenure of 13 years and a persistency rate above 90%, with more than 70% of clients holding multiple products. The business holds a 63% market share in critical illness insurance, 59% in unit-linked plans, and 49% in medical coverage.
Distribution is supported by an active agency network of more than 24,000 agents—giving AIA a 44% agency market share, which is ten times larger than its nearest rival—alongside a strategic partnership with Bangkok Bank, spanning over 700 branches and 2,000 agents.