International worker medical plans in APAC and the Middle East are projected at 15%.
Global healthcare insurance costs are expected to ease slightly in 2027, but premiums will continue to climb at rates well above general inflation.
According to Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report, the average global medical trend rate is projected to land at 9.0% in 2027, down from 9.8% in 2026.
Regional projections for gross medical trend rates show mixed results for 2027.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region expects a more significant reduction, dropping from 11.3% to 9.7%, aided by decreases in China down to 6.0% and India down to 10.1%.
North America is anticipated to see a rate of 9.2%, a slight decrease from 9.3% in 2026, driven largely by Canada dropping to 7.4% while the United States remains flat at 9.5%.
Europe is projected to drop to 7.5% from 8.2%, with the United Kingdom seeing a full 2.0% decrease down to 10.0%. Latin America and the Caribbean remains relatively stable, moving slightly from 10.3% to 10.4%, where Brazil’s 7.7% rate is offset by Mexico dropping to 10.3%.
Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa region expects a drop to 12.2% from 15.3%, though net trend rates there are actually rising due to lower general inflation masking localised healthcare pressures.
Despite this moderation, cost pressures persist across employer-sponsored medical plans.
The global medical trend rate remains more than triple the average general inflation rate of 2.6%.
Major drivers behind the continued growth in insurance claims include chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease, cancer, hypertension, and rising obesity rates.
Additionally, the growing adoption of costly GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes medications accounts for up to 10.0% of the medical trend rate in various countries, averaging over 3.0% globally.
For internationally mobile workers, expatriate medical trend rates continue to outpace domestic programs, typically running 1.0 to 2.0% higher than the global average.
Expat medical insurance for US and UK policies is projected at 11.5% in 2027, while APAC and Middle East expat policies sit at 15.0%, driven by heavy reliance on premium healthcare facilities and high utilisation.
To combat these rising costs, 87.0% of surveyed countries are utilising employee wellbeing initiatives, and two-thirds are implementing flexible benefit plans for 2027.