The insurer must reduce its 22% ICICI Prudential Life holding to 10%.
Prudential Plc could sustain annual share buybacks of between $1b and $2b as it sells down stakes in its Indian joint ventures, according to Jefferies.
The investment bank said the insurer’s planned disposals of Indian assets could provide additional capital for buybacks whilst its underlying business continues to grow.
Prudential agreed earlier this year to acquire a 75% stake in Bharti Life Insurance for $365m.
To meet regulatory requirements that prevent a foreign company from sponsoring multiple competing insurers, Prudential must reduce its 22% stake in ICICI Prudential Life Insurance to 10%.
Jefferies expects Prudential to sell down its remaining stake in ICICI Prudential Life over time, rather than retain a financial interest in the business.
It expects proceeds from further disposals to be returned to shareholders through buybacks.
Prudential has also been selling its stake in ICICI Prudential Asset Management. After listing the business in late 2025, the insurer sold a further 2% stake alongside its first-half 2026 results, raising $300m.
The proceeds were added to its 2026 buyback, taking the free float to the required 15%.
Jefferies said a further regulatory requirement will eventually require the free float in ICICI Prudential Asset Management to rise to 25%, making additional stake sales likely over the medium term. It expects Prudential could ultimately dispose of its entire holding.
Prudential has disclosed buybacks of $1.5b for 2026 and $1.3b for 2027. Jefferies expects the insurer could maintain annual buybacks of $1b to $2b beyond these plans.
Its model assumes the recurring portion of the buyback will reach $600m in 2027 and grow by about $100m a year, with asset disposal proceeds adding about $700m annually.
Jefferies estimates Prudential has more than $5b of Indian stakes that could potentially be sold down.
Jefferies said this pool of assets could support elevated buybacks long enough for Prudential’s internally generated cash flows to replace the proceeds from disposals once those assets have been sold.
Jefferies also pointed to bancassurance growth and free surplus generation as other potential catalysts for Prudential. It expects the group to meet its $4.4b free surplus generation target.
Jefferies raised its earnings per share forecasts by 3% for 2026 and 5% for 2027, whilst cutting its revenue forecasts by 1% and 2%, respectively.